U.S. Vegetable Oil Supply is a ‘House of Cards’


A strange connection has developed between vegetable oil production and livestock feed. Of all the vegetable oil produced in the U.S., 80.1% is from soybeans and 9.9% is from corn, for a total of 90% of domestic vegetable oil [2]. But both those crops provide low amounts of oil per acre, about 300 to 334 kg of oil per hectare of land. A hectare is 2.471 acres. A farmer (or a large agri-business) cannot pay the expenses of growing a crop of corn or soy with only the income from the oil. Soybeans are only about 18 to 20% oil. But when the soy is processed for oil, the press cake leftover is sold for livestock feed. This makes soy more valuable than if it were sold for oil alone, giving the farmer enough income to make a profit. And a similar situation exists with corn. The corn kernels contain an average of only 4.3% oil. But when the corn is processed, the oil is extracted and the remainder is used for livestock feed and/or other products. Corn oil alone is not worth enough to justify growing the crop.

Now we start to see the correlation,  especially with soy and corn, which make up 90% of our domestic vegetable oil.  Its NOT cost effective to grow the corn and soy “just for the oil”.   If the livestock market goes under, there is no incentive to grow the corn or soy, its not cost effective.  This is the conundrum, vegetable oil comes from crops (corn and soy) that for those crops to stay cost effective the markets they “feed” must be stable.

Other oils produced in the U.S. include: canola, cottonseed [4], sunflower, peanut, and safflower. But all of those oils combined only equal about 10% of the domestic total. And there would be no easy way to increase the production of those oils to make up the loss of corn and especially soybean oil.

Then the unthinkable will happen, and happen with little or no warning.  We’ve seen the instability of the stock markets, most Americans will not be prepared nor do they understand all the food products we depend on for vegetable oils.

Beef, pork, and poultry are all raised using livestock feed, which is made from corn and soy. Without corn and soy, there would be a sharp reduction in meat, poultry, vegetable oil, and any processed foods that require significant amounts of oil. Corn and soy are the dual lynchpin of the agricultural system. Without those lynchpins, the system could collapse.

Source: Prep Blog

 



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