With Trump denied a clear path to the GOP nod, party insiders are liable to move forward with rumored plans to insert a candidate of their choice against the will of Republican voters. It’s a contemptible plan, but considering the open contempt the RNC has shown for it’s supporters, it’s not surprising at all.
There is a slim chance that Trump will be able to secure enough delegates, but as one primary prediction analysis shows, it is highly unlikely at this point:
“April 19th
The next primary is in Donald Trump’s home state of New York. The state’s 95 delegates are awarded proportionally at both the congressional district level and statewide, unless a candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote. Trump is currently backed by 53 percent of New York Republicans in the RealClearPolitics average of polls.
If Trump won more than 50 percent of the vote statewide and more than 50 percent in each of the state’s 27 congressional districts, he would win all 95 of the state’s delegates. We do not believe Trump will be able to sweep all of the contests in New York. While his overall polling average is right at the threshold for sweeping the statewide delegates, there isn’t enough support to ensure a sweep of all the state’s congressional districts. Trump’s overall level of support in New York has come down in recent weeks.
Expected Trump delegate gain: +75
April 26th
One week after New York, five states on the East Coast — Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, Delaware, and Pennsylvania — vote in primaries, awarding a total of 172 delegates. The smallest state, Delaware, with 16 delegates, is winner-take-all. The largest prize, Pennsylvania, awards 17 of its 71 delegates to the winner of the statewide vote. The other 54 delegates are directly elected in congressional districts and not bound to support any particular candidate. All of the contests, except Rhode Island, are closed primaries, meaning only registered Republicans can participate.
We assume Donald Trump will win all of these contests, as he has generally performed very well in this region. The voters here are also more moderate than other states, blunting the appeal of the Cruz campaign. Kasich ought to perform well in this area, at least enough to win some delegates.
In Pennsylvania, 54 delegates are directly elected in the commonwealth’s 18 congressional districts. The delegates run without any candidate affiliation listed on the ballot. This puts an enormous premium on campaign organization and infrastructure, as voters have to know which delegate is supporting a particular candidate. In every contest so far, Cruz has had a better campaign organization than either Trump or Kasich.
Expected Trump delegate gain: +95
May 3rd
Indiana is the only state holding a primary on this date. It has 57 delegates, awarding 30 to the winner of the statewide vote and three to the winner of each of the state’s nine congressional districts. The state is an emerging battleground, voting for Barack Obama in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012. It is a microcosm of the agricultural midwest — the industrial rust belt and suburban office parks.
We expect Ted Cruz to win the state after his performance in Wisconsin. We also expect Trump and Kasich to pick up delegates in specific congressional districts.
Expected Trump delegate gain: +6″
Sources: Breitbart
thank goodness, the guy is full of s**t