Central Bankers Say Coming Global Economic Crash Could “Hit With A Vengeance”


The BIS report warns of trouble ahead for the world economy. It cites China as an example, noting its economy is overheating like those of the United States and the United Kingdom did just before the financial crisis of 2007-08.

Claudio Borio, the head of the BIS monetary and economic department, said a new recession could come “with a vengeance” and “the end may come to resemble more closely a financial boom gone wrong”.”

The bankers express concern about rising debt in countries like China and the potential rise of protectionism by the Trump administration in the United States.

It predicted that central banks would be forced to raise interest rates after years of record lows in order to combat inflation which will “smother” growth.”

The problems in China are particularly troubling. Corporate debt there has almost doubled since 2007, reaching 166 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In addition, Chinese household debt hit 44 percent of GDP last year.

This past May, Moody’s cut China’s credit rating for the first time since 1989. The rating drop from A1 to A3 could possibly raise the cost of borrowing for the Chinese government.

The BIS’s credit-to-GDP gap indicator also showed debt, which is seen as an “early warning indicator” for a country’s banking system, is rising far faster than growth in other Asian economies such as Thailand and Hong Kong.”

Other troubling indicators are that the world economy is still recovering from the 2007-08 financial crisis, as well as the euro crisis that followed it in 2010.

As a result, the United Kingdom has suffered a “lost decade” because productivity and wage growth have “flatlined.”

No doubt, BIS will keep on top of the various warning signs and have more to say about the prospects for the world economy in the future.

Source: The Independent

 



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