A Major New War is Looming: World Remains Blind to “Ticking Time Bomb”
According to a new book by Dr. Brendan Taylor, Associate Professor at ANU Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, a major new war is looking in Asia and will likely occur in one of four flashpoints: the East China Sea, the South China Sea, the Korean Peninsula, or the Taiwan Strait.
SOUTH CHINA SEA
A lot has been said about China’s rising superpower status.
According to the Lowy Institute’s latest Asia Power Index, China is set to surpass the United States as the most powerful country in the Asia-Pacific region by 2030.
Nowhere is this more clear than in the South China Sea, a marginal sea in the Pacific Ocean bordered by 10 competing countries.
Over the past five years, the size and scale of China’s land-reclamation has intensified, with satellite evidence of military build-up and threats uttered to the rest of the world.
REUTERS
China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier with accompanying fleet conducts a drill in an area of South China Sea
The sea continues some of the world’s most important shipping lanes, and is believed to hold trillions of dollars in undiscovered oil and gas reserves.
The prospect of war breaking out over the South China Sea continues to be a major discussion point.
—
EAST CHINA SEA
You probably haven’t heard of this conflict in nearly as much detail.
But the threat of escalating into war is just as real — if not more so — than the South China Sea.
The East China Sea is a disputed region situated in the middle of China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, believed to hold valuable natural resources.
At 1.25 million square kilometres, it’s less than half the size of the South China Sea, and receives significantly less media attention.
But it’s just as hotly contested — and includes stand-offs between Japan and South Korea, Japan and China, and Taiwan.
This body of water has caused controversy for several years, with China’s vessels repeatedly sailing into the disputed waters.
“The prospect of Japan developing nuclear weapons is no longer unthinkable,” said Dr Taylor.
REUTERS
North Korea regularly threatened nuclear war but claims to be on the road to denuclearisation now
Noting a complicated relationship between China and Japan, he warns the East China Sea conflict could spark war between Japan and China over an “accidental military clash or a miscalculation”, as well as “virulent nationalism” between the two countries.
—
THE KOREAN PENINSULA
Tensions between North Korea and the wider world made a peak last year with the trade of threats between US President Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un.
Despite a symbolic pledge towards peace at the recent Singapore summit, Dr Taylor says the risk of escalation remains of the Korean peninsula.
He warns that the faltering of these diplomatic efforts could still lead to a strike from Mr Kim, should he read too much into American rhetoric and US military preparations.
“Or Kim, feeling invulnerable because of his burgeoning nuclear and missile arsenal, and buoyed by the prospect of a faltering US-South Korea alliance, could launch a surprise conventional strike against Seoul with a view to reunifying Korea by force.”
Even if Mr Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping were to strike a deal and trade North Korea for Taiwan, he said it’s unlikely Mr Kim would go down without a fight.
“In a worst-case scenario, he (Kim) even might unleash his nuclear arsenal on the world.
“Troublingly, declining powers throughout history have shown a tendency to lash out.”
—
TAIWAN
Taiwan is only 36,000 square kilometres — but the island is hugely controversial.
Beijing sees the island as part of China, and is prepared to reunify the two nations by force if necessary, even though the island has its own self-ruling democratic government, and views itself as a sovereign nation.
While the US has continued to supply Taiwan with military arms for decades — despite officially recognising only China — Dr Taylor describes Taiwan as a “ticking time bomb”.
“America’s military ability to defend Taiwan is already at its limit,” he writes. “The US advantage will likely be gone in a decade … allowing Beijing to deny America access to this theatre.
“America’s ability to intervene in the Taiwan Strait is receding, while an attempt to re-engage carries the risk of sparking “a war like no other”.”
A PLA Navy fleet including the aircraft carrier Liaoning, vessels and fighter jets take part in a drill in April 2018 in the South China SeaDonald Trump has taken a harder line on Taiwan recently, which Dr Taylor believes is “a reflection of his frustration at Beijing’s unwillingness to deal more decisively with Pyongyang or to de-escalate in the South China Sea”.
He notes there are concerns Mr Trump may be willing to trade away US support for Taiwan in exchange for China’s help with resolving the North Korean issue.
Dr Taylor notes that there “seems a strange complacency” about the prospect of war in Asia, “even as the key players understand how devastating a major war would be”.
